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Prediction for CME (2013-05-17T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-05-17T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/267/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-05-19T22:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Dst min. in nT: -20
Dst min. time: 2013-05-20T23:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-05-18T20:55Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Prediction Method: STOA
Prediction Method Note:

On May 18, 2013, at 3:51 AM, Murray Dryer wrote:
Dear Colleagues,
 
R11748 is still busy with an LDE M3.2 flare and halo SME. No metric Type II drift report was reported. So, using Kevin Schenk's SOHO's C2 halo CME's estimated speed, Vcme =1492 km/s, as the surrogate for the coronal shock speed as input, STOA predicts the slightly western flank of the interplanetary shock to arrive at 2055 UT+/-10hr, 18 May 2013.
 
Regards,
Murray Dryer

Lead Time: 38.48 hour(s)
Difference: 25.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-05-18T07:51Z

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